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| Via Wikipedia User Torsten CC BY-SA 3.0 |
If you are a news-hound like me, you'll no doubt know that Israel has been dropping bombs on Iran for exactly a week now, and Iran has been lobbing missles back at Israel. My objective here is not to discuss who has the better moral standing in this conflict. It is to analyze how this might effect the rest of us - but especially Americans, as I am American.
Put simply: This conflict should mean a lot to everyone. With Iranian nuclear infrastructure being attrited, and their leadership being killed, I see 2 things happening. First, oil prices WILL rise. Whether or not Iran tries to close the Straight of Hormuz, Iran will be forced to direct resources toward rebuilding lost infrastructure, and as a large oil producer, this will likely cause a rise in prices. How much? We'll have to wait to see. Secondly, and this is dependant upon how involved the US gets, China could become worryingly active around Taiwan. Both of these things we don't want.
An excellent analysis was done over at The War Zone by their Editor-In-Chief, Tyler Rogoway, in which he said having assets in the region, but waiting to see what happens is the likliest, and smartest, move here. We are ready to defend the Straight, we can protect interests and bases from indiscriminate attacks. We can contain potential spillover as Irael whittles away at Iran. In my mind this is the strongest choice.
